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Ray Dalio

Born 1949 — USA
Founder of Bridgewater ($150B), creator of the All Weather Portfolio
MacroBTCGold

THE ECONOMIC MACHINE

The economy is a machine. Dalio deconstructed economic cycles into simple components: productivity (long trend), short-term debt cycles (5-8 years), and long-term debt cycles (75-100 years). Understanding where we are in the cycle = understanding the market.

His All Weather Portfolio is designed to perform in all regimes: growth, recession, inflation, deflation. The secret: risk parity — each asset class contributes equally to risk. Dalio recently accepted that Bitcoin can play a role in this portfolio.

"He who lives by the crystal ball will eat shattered glass."
— Ray Dalio

KEY CONCEPTS

ALL WEATHER
30% stocks, 40% long bonds, 15% medium bonds, 7.5% gold, 7.5% commodities. Works in all regimes.
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DEBT CYCLES
Short-term (5-8 years) and long-term (75-100 years). We're at the end of a super-cycle. BTC = hedge.
RISK PARITY
Each asset contributes equally to risk. Not equally in dollars — equally in volatility.
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CHANGING WORLD ORDER
Empires rise and fall in cycles. USA declining, China rising. Gold and BTC protect during transitions.

LIVE TOOL — REGIME DETECTOR

WHAT REGIME ARE WE IN?
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IN THE ARENA

Strategy Arena's Regime Detector is directly inspired by Dalio. It identifies the current regime (BULL, BEAR, NEUTRAL, VOLATILE) and strategies adapt. Markowitz and Choueifaty share Dalio's obsession with diversification and risk parity.

𝕏 @RayDalio
← All Minds Regime Detector BTC vs Gold

Ray Dalio on Strategy Arena

This page applies Ray Dalio's All Weather model and his Big Debt Cycle theory to crypto trading. The Debt Cycle Indicator detects where we are in the economic cycle (expansion, bubble, deleveraging) and the All Weather strategy allocates capital to survive in all market regimes.

See all 10 thinkers and the Live Verdict. Compare with Taleb's Barbell — two opposing philosophies.

Livres Recommandes

📖
Principles
Ray Dalio — Amazon
📖
Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order
Ray Dalio — Amazon
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