💬 Feedback
← All Mathematicians
🧮

YVES CHOUEIFATY

Mathematician • Founder of TOBAM • Maximum Diversification®
BTC × Gold Maximum Diversification First BTC Fund (2017)

WHO IS HE?

Yves Choueifaty is a French mathematician who founded TOBAM in 2005 and invented the Maximum Diversification® method — a mathematical framework to build truly diversified portfolios. He was named "CIO of the Year" in 2015 and "Asset Management Leader of the Year" in France in 2016.

In 2017, TOBAM launched the world's first Bitcoin open-ended fund, making Choueifaty one of the earliest institutional believers in Bitcoin as an asset class.

THE KEY INSIGHT — Lag 200 Days × 15

"To make the gold and Bitcoin curves coincide roughly historically, one must take roughly a 200-day lag on the gold time series. The vertical scale must be multiplied by 15."
— Yves Choueifaty, BFM Crypto Le Club, March 23, 2026

In simple terms: Bitcoin follows Gold's trajectory, but 200 days later and with 15x the amplitude. When Gold moves +5%, expect BTC to move approximately +75% about 200 days later.

THE CHOUEIFATY FORMULA
BTC(t) ≈ Gold(t - 200) × 15
Where t is measured in days. Gold's price 200 days ago, multiplied by 15, approximates today's BTC price.
200
DAY LAG
×15
AMPLITUDE
60%
BTC VOLATILITY
~8%
GOLD VOLATILITY
CHOUEIFATY OVERLAY — Gold(t-200) × 15 vs BTC(t)
━ BTC actual ╍ Gold × 15 (lagged 200d) Gap: loading...

📊 LIVE INDICATORS — Where are we in Choueifaty's framework?

GAP METER — BTC vs Gold×15 Prediction
BTC ahead
BTC behind
Calculating...
ROTATION CYCLE POSITION
🟢
RISK ON
BTC leads
🟡
DISTRIB
Profits taken
🔴
RISK OFF
Gold leads
🔵
ACCUM
BTC bottoms
--
BTC Price
--
Gold Price
--
BTC/Gold Ratio
--
Correlation

WEALTH ROTATION THESIS

According to Choueifaty, when geopolitical tensions rise ("the sound of the cannon"), investors sell risk assets and buy Gold first. Then, as Gold peaks, hedge funds take profits and rotate into Bitcoin — the asset that lagged behind.

He notes that the current gap between Gold and BTC is similar to early 2020 (COVID), suggesting a major BTC catch-up may be coming.

He references Nathan Rothschild: "Sell on the sound of the trumpet, buy on the sound of the cannon."

WHY BITCOIN IS SUPERIOR TO GOLD (HIS VIEW)

Choueifaty argues Bitcoin has key technological advantages over Gold:

He sees MicroStrategy as the first "modern reserve institution" for Bitcoin — equivalent to the first gold reserve companies in 1694.

MAXIMUM DIVERSIFICATION®

Choueifaty's mathematical contribution to finance: instead of weighting portfolios by market cap or equal weight, maximize true diversification by selecting assets with the lowest correlations.

Bitcoin, with its low correlation to traditional assets, significantly improves portfolio diversification under his framework. Adding just 1-5% BTC to a traditional portfolio increases the diversification ratio.

DR = weighted_vol / portfolio_vol
Diversification Ratio — higher = better diversified. BTC improves DR because its returns are largely uncorrelated with stocks and bonds.

TIMELINE

2005
Founds TOBAM, invents Maximum Diversification®
2015
Named "CIO of the Year"
2016
TOBAM publishes Bitcoin investment thesis
2017
Launches world's first Bitcoin open-ended fund
2026
Reveals Gold/BTC lag formula on BFM Crypto (200d × 15)
See BTC vs Gold Live →
← All Mathematicians
Educational content. Citations from public BFM Crypto broadcast (March 23, 2026). Not financial advice. Not affiliated with TOBAM.
Découvrez aussi : ScoreCredit (Crédit)|ScoreInvest (Investissement)|ScoreProtect (Assurance)|ScoreImmobilier (Immobilier)|ScoreZenith (Patrimoine)|StrategyArena (Trading IA)