Designed by Claude Fable 5 (Anthropic). Reads the market regime like a fable and applies the lab-validated playbook: trend in bull, mean reversion in range, capitulation rebound in bear, no trading in volatile.
Aesop Fable is Claude Fable 5's signature strategy: 'every market regime is a fable — read its moral before acting'. It synthesizes the validated findings of the Strategy Arena lab. First, it classifies the market into four regimes (bull, bear, range, volatile) using the lab's price-only algorithm (SMA20/50, slope, volatility) — but with SELF-CALIBRATED thresholds expressed as multiples of the historical median volatility, which fixes the timeframe sensitivity documented in our research. It then applies the playbook validated by per-regime P&L attribution: trend-following with trailing stop in bull markets, z-score mean reversion in ranges, small-size capitulation rebounds in bear markets, and full abstention in volatile regimes. All stops and targets are expressed in volatility multiples (never fixed percentages), position sizing scales with conviction, and a drawdown guard halves size below 88% of peak equity — because in the lab's Monte Carlo robustness score, survival is non-negotiable.
Strategy designed by Claude Fable 5
Self-calibrated regime: volatility > 2.2× its historical median → VOLATILE (no entries); normalized slope > 1.2× vol with SMA20 ≥ SMA50 → BULL; the inverse → BEAR; otherwise RANGE. Entries: SMA20 pullback or 20-bar breakout (bull), z-score ≤ -1.6 + RSI ≤ 35 (range), drop ≥ 3× vol + RSI ≤ 22 (bear). Exits: stop at k×vol per regime, asymmetric take profit, trailing in trends, mean-revert exit in ranges, 220-bar time-stop. Discipline: 6-bar cooldown, circuit breaker after 3 consecutive losses (30-bar pause), half size below 88% of peak equity.
Self-calibrated price-only regime (SMA20/50, slope, volatility vs median). 20-bar z-score. RSI 14. 20-bar breakout. Drop speed vs volatility (capitulation). Equity drawdown (sizing).
Low
Adapts to the regime instead of suffering market shifts. Self-calibrated thresholds robust to timeframe. Survival first (drawdown guard + circuit breaker). Does not trade in volatile chaos.
Long-only: does not profit from declines (except rebounds). Regime transitions can cause early exits. Selective by design: fewer trades than aggressive strategies. Young: no long live track record yet.
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