Real or shuffled?
The real Bitcoin market, or the same candles shuffled? 12 charts, about a minute, no account.
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Twelve charts prove nothing about you. Not with a high score, not with a low one.
A chart can seem to have structure without having any. So can a backtest.
The method
Each chart shows 96 consecutive 4-hour BTCUSDT candles, taken before 17 October 2026. Dates and prices are hidden, and each chart has its own scale.
A game draws 6 real charts and 6 shuffled ones from 36 windows that never overlap. Half of the windows stay as they are.
In the other half, the candles are permuted. Each candle keeps its body, its wicks, its volume and its gap, all moved together. Only the order changes, so the window ends at the same level. Each shuffled chart is announced as synthetic when the answer appears.
What it shows, and what it does not
- It shows that candles with no order of their own can still look like a story.
- It does not show that markets have no structure. Shuffling removes what depends on order, and a trained eye can notice that.
- Players can tell real from shuffled: in a 2010 MIT study by Hasanhodzic, Lo and Viola, they did so well above chance. That is not the same as predicting what comes next.
Fixed seed: 20261102. Build script · Data. With the script and the seed, the whole file can be rebuilt, answers included.
Questions
How is a shuffled chart made?
It starts from a real Bitcoin window. Each candle keeps its body, its wicks, its volume and its gap from the previous close. Only the order of the candles changes. The window therefore ends at the same level. That chart never happened on the market, and the game says so when it reveals the answer.
If I can spot the real chart, can I predict the market?
No. These are two different skills. Shuffling erases what depends on order, such as calm and agitated stretches that come in groups, and an eye can learn to notice that. Telling the two apart says nothing about what comes next. To test a forecast, there is the Prisme Arena; to test a script, the online judge.
Does my score say anything about me?
No. Twelve charts prove nothing about a player, in either direction. Guessing at random already gives between 3 and 9 correct answers in about 96% of games. There is no ranking, and the score is not saved.