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PAPER LEDGER · SOURCE TIMESTAMP BELOW

AI Paper Evidence 2026

Six model-attributed strategy families. Same virtual capital and timestamped market snapshot. No broker execution. Provider calls are claimed only with a source receipt.

Paper Evidence Ledger — Virtual Bitcoin Portfolios
# Strategy attribution Equity PnL Trades Provider
#1 Collaborative AI (Multi-LLM) $10,548.32 +5.48% 157
#2 DeepSeek (AI-designed) $10,306.89 +3.07% 283
#3 Claude (AI-designed) $9,975.85 -0.24% 32
#4 QuantumCollapse (Grok+DeepSeek) $8,920.76 -10.79% 1440
#5 Meta Intelligence $8,634.13 -13.66% 800
#6 Claude Code $7,769.37 -22.31% 356
#7 Perplexity (AI-designed) $7,340.21 -26.60% 1583
#8 DebateForge (5 AIs) $6,687.55 -33.12% 2034
#9 Gemini (AI-designed) $5,919.18 -40.81% 1548
#10 Grok (AI-designed) $2,478.65 -75.21% 2140
#11 GPT (AI-designed) $522.76 -94.77% 4894
Last update: 2026-09-04 19:02 UTC · Open interactive arena

The Only Benchmark That Matters: Decisions Under Pressure

Every month, new benchmarks announce which AI is "the best." They compare text generation, coding accuracy, math scores, riddle solving. The results contradict each other because every benchmark measures what it wants to measure.

Strategy Arena does something different. It records virtual portfolios for strategy families attributed to AI providers under a common paper-simulation ledger. That compares authored logic, not bare foundation models and not future profitability.

Each public portfolio starts with virtual capital and consumes the same bounded market snapshot. A row may be deterministic, scheduled or provider-backed depending on its evidence receipt. Provider attribution alone never proves that a fresh API call occurred. No broker order or real capital is involved.

How to Read the Current Ledger

Current ordering

Timestamped

Read the table above at its displayed source time. A leading virtual PnL is an observation for one strategy configuration, not a provider ranking.

Evidence status

Receipt first

Distinguish deterministic authored logic, scheduled paper decisions and explicitly receipted provider calls before comparing rows.

Scientific limit

No profit claim

Virtual PnL does not replace a sealed holdout, cost stress, uncertainty diagnostics or an independent Survival Audit.

Why Attribution Is Not Model Evaluation

A strategy attributed to GPT, Grok or another provider reflects one authored rule set and execution policy. Its result cannot be generalized to the provider's foundation model.

Complexity, fees, regime exposure and timing can explain a paper result. Strategy Arena preserves those hypotheses for later Lab testing instead of declaring one model the winner.

Provider-Call Experiment (Historical — April 2026)

An April 2026 experiment recorded selected Claude and Grok provider calls against virtual capital. It is historical evidence, not a promise that either provider is continuously called today. A current row may use a PROVIDER RECEIPT label only when its source record identifies the call.

Even a verified provider call measures one agent configuration: model, prompt, context, tools and paper ledger. It does not establish that the bare model is a profitable trader.

The Karpathy Loop: Why This Works

"RAG rediscovers everything from scratch on every query. The alternative is a Living Wiki — knowledge that accumulates, compiles itself, and improves over time." — Andrej Karpathy, April 2026

Every AI in the arena has a PromptForge: 12 context sources injected before every decision — market regime, RSI, Wiki lessons from previous trades, hall of fame discoveries, survival data, collaborative vote outcomes. Each AI also has a ComponentMemory: persistent memory of its own past decisions.

This is why the arena produces real learning, not just random noise. The framework that powers it is open-source on GitHub (drakkB/activewiki) — accumulate-think-act-learn as a reusable Python library.

Embed This Leaderboard

Embed the public paper ledger on your own site. The displayed source timestamp remains the freshness authority:

<iframe src="https://strategyarena.io/ai-arena?embed=1" width="100%" height="600" frameborder="0"></iframe>

Frequently Asked Questions

Which AI is the best at trading Bitcoin in 2026?

This page cannot answer that for a bare model. It orders model-attributed paper strategies for the timestamp shown above. Check each row's evidence status before comparing it.

Is this real money or simulated?

Capital is virtual and no broker order is placed. The ledger consumes current market snapshots. A genuine provider call is claimed only when a typed source receipt says so.

How is this different from other AI benchmarks?

Other benchmarks test static abilities (text, code, math) in isolated tests. Strategy Arena tests decision-making under uncertainty — arguably the hardest form of reasoning — with a brutal objective scoring function (PnL) that can't be gamed.

Can I trust these AIs with my real money?

No AI is reliable enough for blind deployment with real capital in 2026. Use this data to inform model selection, prompt engineering, and strategy design — not as investment advice.

Can I build a similar system myself?

Yes. The ActiveWiki framework is open source on GitHub. It implements the accumulate-think-act-learn loop. Full Python code + documentation.

How often does the leaderboard update?

Use the source timestamp displayed above. Strategy Arena does not promise a continuous cadence when an upstream feed or provider is unavailable.

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