How it works
How does Strategy Arena work?
Strategy Arena is a paper-trading evidence lab. It judges a trading strategy on market history the strategy has never seen, then shows what was measured. No public system receives broker credentials, places an order or holds real capital.
1
The sealed test
A strategy tuned on a period always looks good on that period. The only fair question is what it does on the part it never saw.
- SealThe most recent 20% of the market history is put aside before anything is tried.
- SearchSettings are tried on the remaining 80% only. Every try is counted.
- Open onceThe chosen version runs a single time on the sealed part.
- CompareThe result is set against Buy & Hold: buying at the start of the sealed part and doing nothing.
2
Three verdicts
Each verdict comes with the numbers behind it: closed trades, result, Buy & Hold over the same bars.
KEEP
Positive on the sealed part, ahead of Buy & Hold, with at least 10 closed trades and no collapse compared with the search period.
REJECT
It lost money on unseen data, or holding the market did better, or the result fell apart once out of the search period.
INCONCLUSIVE
Fewer than 10 closed trades on the sealed part. Too little to judge: try a more active rule or another market.
A payment never changes a verdict. A bad verdict is still a delivered report.
3
Three places to run it
On the website
Paste a Pine script. Quick Check is free and says whether it can be audited. Survival Audit runs it on the server and delivers a private report.
Open the audit →On your PC
The Windows Lab runs the same sealed test locally, on real market history, from rules you assemble or from your own Pine.
Download the Lab →In the public arena
75 public strategies hold virtual portfolios on timestamped market prices. Gains and losses are public.
Open the dashboard →4
Read a result without fooling yourself
The +172% that became −37%
A search found +172% on the data that selected it, then −37% on unseen data. The full case.
Read the case →5
Questions
Does Strategy Arena trade for me?
No. It is simulation and research. It never connects to a broker account.
Does KEEP mean the strategy will make money?
No. KEEP means it passed the sealed test on past data. It is a reason to keep studying it, not a forecast.
Why does the same strategy pass on one market and fail on another?
Markets do not behave alike. A rule that fits oil can fail on Bitcoin. This is why the test names the market and the bar size every time.
What is free?
Quick Check, the Lab with full local proofs, reports and the public arena. Compare plans
Past results on historical data. Nothing here is investment advice or a forecast.