Shadow social alpha lab · V6 paper PnL · live radar

X Alpha Matrix

A research engine that reads public X market calls, separates crypto from equities, isolates forecasters worth tracking, settles calls against realized prices, maps crowd correlation, then emits a paper-only signal for Strategy Arena. No live trading. No claims before settlement.

Prepare Grok scan Reputation proof Raw board Methodology Secret Arena

Collector

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Raw Posts

immutable ledger

Calls

parsed market stances

Forecasters

tracked accounts

Isolated

watchlist panel

Settled 24h

realized calls

Live matrix readiness NO KEY

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Shadow signal du moment

Loading matrix

paper-only

24h proof

0 / n/a

7d proof

0 / n/a

Faders

Coverage

0 calls

Waiting for live signals...

Waiting for XAI_API_KEY. The engine is deployed in cold-start mode and will begin collecting once Grok X Search is available.

V6 paper PnL proof

Equal-weight daily research curve from settled X calls. Follow, fade and raw market baseline are shown side by side.

24h horizon · no live trading

Loading paper equity curve...

Follow crowd Fade crowd Raw market baseline

Case study

Waiting for settled curve...

Research-only. Equal-weight daily curve. Not execution, not advice.

Scientific pipeline

Every step is auditable. Collection is separated from parsing, scoring, correlation and shadow allocation.

Grok X Search

Owner-only scans public X for broad crypto and equity calls. It never depends on your personal X account.

Immutable ledger

Raw posts and extracted calls are stored as JSONL with stable ids and timestamps.

DeepSeek parser

Bulk extraction can be delegated to a cheaper JSON parser once the Grok collector has enough raw material.

Reputation shrinkage

Forecasters are scored with Bayesian shrinkage so tiny samples do not masquerade as proof.

Discovery + shadow

Broad asset searches feed the ledger, then the matrix emits paper-only signals and contrarian candidates.

Grok scan console

owner-only

This POST endpoint is protected by the Strategy Arena owner guard and spends Grok credits only when you are authenticated and XAI_API_KEY is present.

V4 proof console

owner-only

Crypto and equities are scored separately. A good BTC caller is not automatically a good NVDA caller.

Accounts decay if they stop posting actionable calls or if their settled calls degrade.

V4 keeps the social ledger immutable, settles realized prices separately, then applies shrinkage before any reputation claim.

Shadow signals

Weighted crowd stance by asset. This is research-only until enough settled calls exist.

Loading shadow signals...

V4 reputation engine

shrunk hit-rate

Author	Assets	24h n	24h shrunk	24h avg	Score	Verdict
Loading reputation proof...

Discovery runs

broad X search audit

When	Asset	Queries	Posts	Calls	Buckets
Loading discovery runs...

Raw forecaster leaderboard

pre-reputation

Author	Market	Calls	Evaluated	Score	Status
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Correlation pairs

crowd structure

A	B	Correlation
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V2 isolation watchlist

persistent panel

Author	Market	Calls	Candidate	Tier	Tracking query
Loading isolated forecasters...

Settlement lab

1h / 24h / 7d proof

Author	Asset	Dir	Entry	1h	24h	Status
Loading settlements...

Recent extracted calls

ledger view

Time	Author	Asset	Direction	Horizon	Text
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