Shadow social alpha lab · V6 paper PnL · live radar

X Alpha Matrix

A research engine that reads public X market calls, separates crypto from equities, isolates forecasters worth tracking, settles calls against realized prices, maps crowd correlation, then emits a paper-only signal for Strategy Arena. No live trading. No claims before settlement.

Prepare Grok scan Reputation proof Asset Edge Matrix Cockpit demo Mature board Operator

Collector

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Raw Posts

immutable ledger

Calls

parsed market stances

Forecasters

mature ≥5 evals

Isolated

watchlist panel

Settled 24h

realized calls

Live matrix readiness NO KEY

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Shadow signal du moment

Loading matrix

paper-only

24h proof

0 / n/a

7d proof

0 / n/a

Faders

Coverage

0 calls

Waiting for live signals...

Waiting for XAI_API_KEY. The engine is deployed in cold-start mode and will begin collecting once Grok X Search is available.

V6 paper PnL proof

Equal-weight daily research curve from settled X calls. Follow, fade and raw market baseline are shown side by side.

24h horizon · no live trading

Loading paper equity curve...

Follow crowd Fade crowd Raw market baseline

Case study

Waiting for settled curve...

Research-only. Equal-weight daily curve. Not execution, not advice.

Scientific pipeline

Every step is auditable. Collection is separated from parsing, scoring, correlation and shadow allocation.

Grok collection

The paid API remains available; the local subscription bridge can also submit review-only public-search batches. Every source stays labeled.

Immutable ledger

Raw posts and extracted calls are stored as JSONL with stable ids and timestamps.

DeepSeek parser

Bulk extraction can be delegated to a cheaper JSON parser once the Grok collector has enough raw material.

Reputation shrinkage

Forecasters are scored with Bayesian shrinkage so tiny samples do not masquerade as proof.

Discovery + shadow

Broad asset searches feed the ledger, then the matrix emits paper-only signals and contrarian candidates.

Scientific moat · time × asset × author

Not social sentiment. A falsifiable prediction ledger.

X Alpha does not ask Grok who is right. Grok only extracts public claims. Strategy Arena then freezes the claim, resolves the asset price, waits for the stated horizon, scores the result, and feeds the public Asset Edge Matrix as one independent layer.

Ledger

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Price coverage

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Reliability gate

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Cost discipline

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Time × asset matrix

claimed + forced horizons

Loading temporal matrix...

Each cell is an asset at a measurable horizon. This is where short-term noise, 7d swing calls and 90d long-term calls stop being mixed together.

Grok batch safety gate

dry-run first

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New Grok batches are reviewed before ingestion. Multi-ticker, vague, low-confidence or tickerless posts are quarantined instead of entering the score matrix.

Distribution layer · public to paid

X Alpha is the social layer inside Asset Edge.

Public visitors see the radar, paper proof, correlation pairs and the crossed Asset Edge Matrix. Operator turns the same layer into author diagnostics, exports, historical patterns and the Full Signal Bus used inside private reports.

Public crossing

Asset Edge

X Alpha is crossed with Atlas, News, Invictus, volume and Strategy Arena signals.

Paid cockpit

Reports

Operator turns public layers into private wrong-market and next-mutation diagnostics.

Operator depth

Author edge

Full forecaster diagnostics, CSV export, historical patterns and private signal-bus context.

Regime de-bias lab

crash artifact control

Loading regime artifact control...

Loading regime cells...

Calls are tagged against BTC or SPY context before scoring. This helps separate true timing from simply posting after a visible market crack.

Early / during / late

timing proof

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A call before the move, during the move and after the move are not equivalent. X Alpha now keeps those buckets separate.

Grok scan console

owner-only

This owner-only console uses the paid API path. Subscription batches arrive separately through a signed review-only handoff and never ingest automatically.

V4 proof console

owner-only

Crypto and equities are scored separately. A good BTC caller is not automatically a good NVDA caller.

Accounts decay if they stop posting actionable calls or if their settled calls degrade.

V4 keeps the social ledger immutable, settles realized prices separately, then applies shrinkage before any reputation claim.

Shadow signals

Weighted crowd stance by asset. This is research-only until enough settled calls exist.

Loading shadow signals...

V4 reputation engine

shrunk hit-rate

Author	Assets	24h n	24h shrunk	24h avg	Score	Verdict
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Discovery runs

broad X search audit

When	Asset	Queries	Posts	Calls	Buckets
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Mature forecaster board

min 5 settlements

Author	Market	Calls	Evaluated	Score	Status
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Correlation pairs

crowd structure

A	B	Correlation
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V2 isolation watchlist

persistent panel

Author	Market	Calls	Candidate	Tier	Tracking query
Loading isolated forecasters...

Settlement lab

1h / 24h / 7d proof

Author	Asset	Dir	Entry	1h	24h	Status
Loading settlements...

Recent extracted calls

ledger view

Time	Author	Asset	Direction	Horizon	Text
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