We tested 25 strategies across 9 markets: 0% beat buy & hold in bull markets
The test nobody publishes
Everyone publishes their winning strategies. Nobody publishes the full table. Here is ours, untouched.
We took 25 strategies — momentum, grid, turtle, DCA, trend-followers, mean-reversion, GPU-evolved genetic variants — and ran them identically across 9 markets for one year, transaction fees modeled: Bitcoin, gold, silver, Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, oil, DAX, CAC 40 and EUR/USD.
The question was simple: how many beat simply buying and doing nothing?
The table
| Market | Buy & hold (1 yr) | Average strategy | % beating B&H |
|---|---|---|---|
| Silver (SLV) | +85.5% | +9.3% | 0% |
| Oil (USO) | +57.1% | +7.3% | 0% |
| Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) | +35.9% | +2.8% | 0% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +23.5% | +2.4% | 0% |
| Gold (GLD) | +22.1% | +4.0% | 0% |
| CAC 40 | +8.9% | −0.3% | 0% |
| DAX | +5.5% | −1.8% | 0% |
| EUR/USD | +0.5% | −2.0% | 12% |
| Bitcoin | −37.2% | −10.2% | 96% |
On seven of nine markets — every one that went up — the score is zero. Not "few". Zero out of twenty-five.
The Bitcoin trap
The one line that seems to save the strategies is a statistical trap. 96% of our strategies "beat" buy & hold on Bitcoin… because buy & hold lost 37% over the period. Beating a collapsing market means losing less than it does: the average strategy still lost 10.2%. Anyone reading "96% success" without checking the denominator is buying an illusion.
That is precisely the mechanism behind most sold backtests: pick the period, the market and the benchmark that flatter the number.
What this means (and what it doesn't)
What it means: in a rising market, activity costs money. Every premature exit, every fee, every missed signal is paid against an opponent that does nothing. If your backtest beats buy & hold on a bull asset, the first hypothesis to test is not "I found an edge" but "where does my protocol leak?"
What it doesn't mean: that every strategy is useless. Some of our defensive strategies lose far less than the market in downturns — that is a real result, but it's another article, and it sells worse than "+170% annualized".
How to put your own strategy on trial
This is exactly what we built two tools for:
- The free Windows Lab: your GPU searches hundreds of variants locally, a sealed holdout stays invisible during the search, and the verdict lands on your machine. Educational simulation, no profit promises.
- The free Quick Check: paste a Pine script, compatibility is verified without an account. Then, if you want an independent server-bound execution with a sealed holdout, the audit exists — and an unfavorable verdict is still a delivered audit. Nobody can buy a better verdict.
All data in this article comes from the World Arena snapshot of June 15, 2026 (25 strategies, 1 year, fees modeled). The full matrix is at the World Arena page.
⚠️ Disclaimer — This article is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or a buy/sell recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Strategy Arena is an educational simulator with virtual capital. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.