{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"Dataset","name":"ML Edge Facts","description":"Brier autopsy snapshot","url":"https://strategyarena.io/facts/ml-edge.json","license":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","creator":{"@type":"Organization","name":"Strategy Arena","url":"https://strategyarena.io"},"dateModified":"2026-05-16T22:20:58.319176+00:00","isAccessibleForFree":true,"inLanguage":["en","fr"],"stats":{"fact_count":15,"last_update_iso":"2026-05-16T22:20:58.319176+00:00"},"facts":[{"question":"Naive balanced Brier baseline (50/50)?","answer":"0.25 — random reference for 5-minute binary direction."},{"question":"ChimeraCNN V2 test Brier?","answer":"0.251218 (500-bar embargo)."},{"question":"LeviathanNN V3 Brier?","answer":"0.258915 — active shadow backend mode."},{"question":"HydraLSTM V3 Brier?","answer":"0.248040 — best monster vs 0.25 baseline."},{"question":"Mean observed Brier (autopsy)?","answer":"0.252598 (min 0.248, max 0.259)."},{"question":"Maelstrom 5m Brier mean?","answer":"0.252370 over 5 folds."},{"question":"MetaIntelligence role?","answer":"MetaIntelligenceV3 aggregates shadow signals; ML monsters on self-observation blocklist."},{"question":"Vulture status?","answer":"VultureFighter in shadow evaluation via /api/ml-arena-v3/vulture/evaluate."},{"question":"Anti-look-ahead ML embargo?","answer":"60/20/20 train/test/OOS split + 48–500 bar embargo (cuda_brier_bruteforce_20260517.py)."},{"question":"chimera_ml leak fix?","answer":"Target leak fixed May 2026 — backup chimera_ml.py.bak_pre_leak_fix_20260515_1956."},{"question":"leviathan_data_merger leak fix?","answer":"Strict past-only merger v1: leviathan_data_merger_strict_past_v1 (backend/leviathan_data_merger.py)."},{"question":"CUDA brute-force configs tested?","answer":"660 configs in 1.05h (2026-05-17)."},{"question":"ChimeraCNN test samples?","answer":"9,356 holdout test samples."},{"question":"Brier autopsy conclusion?","answer":"Negative result for standalone 5m directional ML — scores ≈ 0.25; diagnostic/shadow use only."},{"question":"Do ML monsters allocate real capital?","answer":"No — shadow/evaluation mode, public paper trading, not financial advice."}],"not_claimed":["Not investment advice.","Paper trading only.","No guaranteed returns."],"see_also":["https://strategyarena.io/facts/ml-edge","https://strategyarena.io/methodology"]}